Blog Entry

Projecting E-Learning Market Trends

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Dr. Sam Adkins, Chief Research Officer of Ambient Insight, presented on “Open Learning: The Convergence of Collaboration-Based Learning and Social Network Learning” (June 24, 2009) via a free webinar.

Customer Segments and their Uses of Learning Products

He explained his role in surveilling various customer segments—consumer; PreK-12; higher education; corporations and businesses; the federal government; state and local government; associations, NGOs (non-governmental organizations), and nonprofits; and healthcare—in terms of their use of online learning products.

Their model tracks six types of pedagogically defined learning products: self-paced e-learning courseware; digital video, text, and audio reference; social collaboration-based learning; simulation and game-based learning; cognitive learning, and mobile learning. These types of contents are offered through packaged content (“boxed” courses), custom services, software as a service, and installed technologies.

Investments in E-Learning as Leading Indicators

His role then is to identify trends in terms of investment deals by learning product type. Investors often select companies building particular products for the market and expect to exit that market in 2-4 years, which means that their read on the market (if accurate) is a “leading indicator” of where the market may head. He is “100% supplier facing” in terms of his work and watches products—their revenues, their sales, and the customers they target. He also employs some predictive analytics tools to see where the market is heading. He also uses search engines to identify killer apps.

In other words, where are investor funds going in terms of supporting the development of these learning product types? Adkins offered statistics from 2007 – 2008 that showed a jump in funding for self-paced e-learning, digital reference-ware, collaboration-based, simulation and game-based, and mobile learning, and a drop in cognitive learning. The bulk of the funding apparently has gone to digital reference-ware (which I understand to be content delivered through technological means), then collaboration-based learning, and then simulation and game-based, and mobile learning—in descending order. Cognitive learning and self-paced e-learning both received the least investment funding comparatively.

Adkins identified convergence between digital reference-ware and collaboration-based learning with social networking, and he also showed simulation and game-based learning and mobile learning indicating a nascent move in that direction.

Mobility Convergence

Dr. Adkins suggested that his research shows a confluence of visualization technologies, messaging technologies, voice over IP (VOIP 1 and 2), and location-based services are all feeding into “massively distributed mobile collaboration—through handheld multimedia devices. This is enabled by a much stronger technological infrastructure in terms of 4G (fourth generation) wireless broadband. “All roads lead to mobility,” he quipped.

He showcased how virtual worlds integrate social networking by highlighting rooms with learning themes—for virtual job fairs, virtual collaborations around a surgical table with a simulated patient, and other elements. He described “pure” mobile social networks around the world (in Japan, Germany, Singapore, and the Netherlands) which allow people to tap a network of others for information. These also allow accessing location-sensitive cameras at tagged landmarks with GPS coordinates and access to Wikipedia information about those locales.

Open Learning

This researcher found the growing popularity of both open-source (“free” and open API products) and open-learning (where learners take “complete control” of their own learning, and instructors are participants) products, with a concurrent drop in the uses of commercial products. Both open source and open learning products are being adopted faster, with shorter times on market than for commercial products, which often have more gradual adoption rates. The income streams from open source and open learning endeavors may well be in offering supportive services and trainings—because the product itself may be available for free.

He gave examples of consumer social learning products on the market—for language learning, test preparation, homework help, healthcare, and “how to” sites with user-generated contents. Some of these sites will version some contents for free distribution, and more “premium” content is sold. These may also offer ways to connect with real instructors for mentoring and tutoring, thus leading to expertise.

In terms of free sites with user-generated contents, is advertising the sustainable business model—particularly with a buildup of user traffic? He asked.

And K-12

Research has been exploring how children behave in virtual worlds so as to understand their learning needs into the future. Adkins cited research by D. Gauntlett and L. Jackson (U of Westminster) who identified eight types of virtual world users. These individuals were placed on a vertical continuum, with solitary at the bottom and sociable at the top. Their model apparently reads as follows:

Self-stampers Social climbers Life-system builders Fighters Nurturers Collector-consumers Power-users Explorer-investigators

From their research, they apparently formed some initial personality and cognitive profiles. (http://www.childreninvirtualworlds.org.uk/pdfs/Gauntlett_and_Jackson_May_2008.pdf) They also have offered research regarding risks to children uses of virtual spaces (http://www.enisa.europa.eu/doc/pdf/deliverables/children_on_virtual_worlds.pdf) .

He highlighted K-12 and higher education electronic portfolios and learning communities and how they integrate social learning. He showed how large national endeavors combine both social elements and live learning, with information gathering—such as the categorizing of all life forms and using citizen-created contents.

Even corporate-facing learning technology suppliers are “going social.” Corporations have been leery of such technologies because of fears that these may be “time sinks” and also gaps in privacy and security. Corporate environments have been historically slow about adopting instance messaging but then once on board, IM has become ubiquitous in work places. Technology adoption is about cultural challenges, not technology challenges per se. Healthcare trainings are also being conducted online and involve a social element.

User-Created Contents

The slide “2009 Snapshot of the Waves of Learning Product Innovation” shows an overview of the market with five phases of the time on the market: Product R&D; (research and development), market creation phase, value creation phase, commoditization phase, and value migration phase. This informational slide shows the rise of collaboration products, still with some predominance by commercial products. Open source dominates the course management area. This market is still maturing, with most of the players in the value creation phase. It’s interesting, too, that learning management systems are between the commoditization and value migration phases, and authoring tools seem to be less of a part of the mass learning market.

If the first wave of learning was about delivering a product, and the second wave (open source) about delivering services, then the third wave of open learning is about a community experience.

Reference

The presenter may be reached at sam@ambientinsight.com.

Ambient Insight’s Resource Library

http://www.ambientinsight.com/News/PublishedContent.aspx

Note: This blog has no relationship with Ambient Insight. This writing is only a journal entry of the blogger’s observations during the web conference presentation.

Comments

how to market online 2 months, 1 week ago

I'm a father of 3 children and I think it is critical to understand how our children learn in the virtual world, especially when they spend so much time online.

I think as we move more into the online learning world, our learning experience will become more open source.

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